Rong Jian: Who wins or lose with nuclearized North Korea (edited)

We publish this article by the Chinese writer Rong Jiang , we do not nessecarily endorse or agree with the all the contesnts of the article 

 

2017-7-11

Recently, North Korea successfully launched another intercontinental missile with enough range to reach the United States. The international community appraised North Korea with a different eye.

Despite harsh international sanctions, North Korea was able to develop nuclear weapons step by step to a point of conducting a test launch of the intercontinental missile.

So far the United Nations has not come up with any practical and effective measures of sanctions other than the formation of several near-waste paper agreements. The root cause of this situation is that the three major powers of China, Russia, and the United States have very different positions on resolving the DPRK issue.

The United States advocates further severe sanctions on North Korea. In particular, it demanded that relevant countries cut off the oil supply to North Korea. If the economic sanctions remain ineffective, it will not rule out the final elimination of North Korea's nuclear facilities and nuclear capabilities by force. China and Russia, based on their common standpoint, advocating peaceful dialogue to resolved the DPRK issue. They stress that military means should not become an option for resolving the issue, and further oppose the U.S. deployment of the SADR missile defense system in South Korea. They believe the deployment has seriously damaged the stability of the national strategic security interests of the region, including China and Russia, and it will not help achieve the goal of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula and regional peace and stability.

The great differences between China, Russia and the United States in resolving the DPRK issue will be difficult to reconcile now because of this instances.

Can the United States and North Korea accept the solution of "double suspension" and "double-track integration" put forward now by China and Russia, is still a big question mark.

For the United States, it is almost impossible to take the lead in halting the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise. For North Korea, becoming a nuclear-weapon state has been written into the country's constitution and it is almost impossible to take the initiative to abandon its nuclear program.

Since the United States and North Korea cannot take the initiative to stop neither the military exercises, nor nuclear tests, isn't it too much of a wishful thinking for China and Russia to desire making the impossible possible?

Moreover, North Korea has determined to fight to the death, has overcome all difficulties, has gained nuclear deterrent, and is now in a favorable position to dominate the situation.

The grim fact is that no matter how China and Russia were committed to resolve the North Korea's nuclear issue by peaceful means, not only the problem has not been alleviated but instead has become increasingly serious over the past 10 years. The determination of North Korea for nuclear testing grew, the development of nuclear weapons and missiles accelerated, and it’s technology was getting more mature.

Some so-called experts think that North Korea simply does not have the capability to develop intercontinental missiles.

The DPRK's successful launch of intercontinental missiles is a slap on those experts' face.

North Korea apparently is pleased to see the rest of the world under illusions and dreams while despising their nuclear weapons and missile research and development capabilities. They had a triumphant laughter seeing the US imperialists and Chinese revisionists stunned by the nuclear bombs and missiles that they created through their own national efforts.

North Korea's nuclear arsenal has become a fait accompli, and its long-range delivery capability has been perfected. This increasingly uncontrollable situation took place precisely while China and Russia continuing appeal to resolve the DPRK issue by peaceful means.

This more than a dozen years is crucial to North Korea. Its nuclear weapons technology has soared by leaps and bounds and it certainly established a combat capability.

Any attempt now to launch an external attack on North Korea in order to completely eliminate its nuclear forces, countries around the Korean Peninsula, including China, of course, will most likely have to bear insufferable huge costs and may even be an Armageddon.

To date, it must be admitted that the combined efforts of the five nations China, Russia, the United States, Japan, and the ROK not only failed to stop North Korea's abandoning it's[FE1]  nuclear weapons but instead became the five tactile dolls in the hands of North Korea. Under North Korea's control, Sino-U.S. relation became tense, Sino-Japan relation is broken, Sino-South Korean relation cracked, Japan and South Korea become adversary, while China and Russia become fair weather friends. The established stability in East Asia based on the strategic balance after WWII and the peace and friendly relation in East Asia since China's reform and opening up might be destroyed.

Now it is time for the reckoning. Regardless of what kind of abacus each China, Russia, the United States, Japan, the ROK and the DPRK played, in the face of such a harsh and complex situation created by North Korea, all should come to a settlement. Who is Winners and losers in this game?

I make the following analysis:

First, North Korea may be the biggest winner in this nuclear-dominated international game.

On the winning side, after risking being exterminated, North Korea's ruthless development of nuclear weapons renders itself on the driver seat. Now it has the verified capability of war and all external combat forces dear not to underestimate. Nuclear Deterrence is indeed the most powerful killer weapon a small country can have to resist against large countries, so that the big powers cannot act rashly against a small country. In this regard, the strategic goal of North Korea has been reached overall. North Korea can continue to strengthen and improve its nuclear attack capabilities, and withdraw its nuclear countervailing duty at the last minute as the largest bargaining chip in exchange for the security it has been expecting.

The DPRK's successful launch of the intercontinental missile has already broken through the critical point that the United States can endure. Will North Korea win or lose? It appears to have a larger winning side to it.

Second, China is the biggest loser for now. After North Korea's possession of nuclear deterent, China lost both its control of North Korea and its good relations with South Korea. If China wants to dominate the political order in East Asia, losing effective control over the Korean Peninsula means it will not be able to get anything done. It will further strengthen the alliance between Japan and South Korea, and provide more justification for the U.S. to return to East Asia. The loss of control over the DPRK means the failure of China's entire East Asian diplomacy.

North Korea's nuclear threat to China is a direct threat, i.e. to further aggravate the arms race in East Asia. South Korea's forced introduction of the U.S.-led missile defense system is only the first step in an arms race. If North Korea continues to expand its nuclear test, it may trigger an East Asia nuclear arms race. Then, East Asia will become a thermonuclear zone of the world, and there will be no peace among East Asian countries.

At present, there is only one option for China to shed its passive situation in dealing with North Korea. That is to break the existing diplomatic framework based on ideology, move out of the illusory mindset of uniting Russia against the United States, move towards a genuine cooperation between the east and the west. (Otherwise, if)[FE2]  The United States launches a military strike, it will be a nuclear disaster on the peninsula, North Korea will be reduced to ruins by the war and bring disaster to China. No matter what happens, China is without doubt a loser.

Third, in the six-nation game that is currently centered on North Korea's nuclear possession, if there is a winner, Russia certain is the one now. Russia has won tremendous opportunities to implement its Far East strategy because of the DPRK nuclear issue.

Russia has always declared that it is the least related country in the six countries, and its interests are the smallest compared with the other five countries. It has consistently advertised that the position it uphold is the most objective and fair to the DPRK issue. However, as obvious as anyone can see, Russia supports the DPRK's nuclear test more directly than China. Why Russia wants to do this, even at the risk of offending the United States? Because North Korea's nuclear development is in Russia's strategic interest in the Far East.

Without the North Korea's nuclear issue, Russia has no role to play in East Asia. Its Far East interests will gradually be siphoned off by China's enormous economic capacity. North Korea's nuclear-weapon policy has disrupted the peace in East Asia and broke the political balance in East Asia, giving Russia a major opportunity to return to East Asia. Russia has gained bargaining chips with the United States due to the DPRK nuclear issue, and it can use this to bargain with China also.

It is worth mentioning that Russia possesses such a huge national interest advantage on resolving the DPRK's question while it has almost no risks. Even if the worst situation in North Korea occurs, in the event of a nuclear war, or a nuclear accident, it will have the least impact on Russia. Therefore, when Russia meets such a good opportunity, it will not let it go. Maintaining the present tense situation in the Korean Peninsula and the status quo in North Korea gave Russia a spectacular ability to watch others fight it out while being able to reap benefit at any time it wants.

Fourth, the United States is the key to the ultimate resolution of the DPRK issue. The problem is cost control. If it is a nuclear disaster and hundreds of thousands of people die on the peninsula, the cost will be too great. The United States will have to weigh the consequences of the war.

If the United States hits North Korea, what are the benefits? Almost none.

Should the United States use force against North Korea if China and Russia hold that the military solution is not an option? This is the challenge faces the United States. President Trump is a penny-pinching interest calculator. Will he fight North Korea because of some universal principles? War or no war is a dilemma for the United States. The final decision is in the hands of the United States, but it also need to consider the attitudes of Japan and South Korea.

Fifth. Japan and South Korea fully agree with the position of the United States in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. Both countries had signed military agreements with the United States, and must militarily obey the U.S. strategy in the Far East. However, if the United States really uses force against North Korea, Japan and South Korea must surely weigh the consequences and costs of such a war. At present, this is the main factor that inhibits the use of force by the United States.

For Japan, the war was a painful memory for the Japanese nationals. Accepting the lesson and the defeat of World War II, Japan's constitution stipulates that it will never again enter in a war. Therefore, Japan has the power but not the will to use force to resolve the nuclear issue in DPRK. In other words, if Japan enters a state of war, its ability to fight the war is adequate. Even if Japan is to use its existing naval and air forces capabilities to deal with North Korea, it will be more than enough, not to mention the full mobilization of the war capabilities. The problem in Japan is that as the only country in the world that has been subjected to an atomic bomb, its nationals do not have the will to fought, and could not imagine going through another nuclear attack. I believe Japan has no preparation for a war at all.

It is even more unbearable for South Korea than Japan to face a war. Japan has the power but not the heart for a war. South Korea has neither the power nor the heart, that is, neither the capability to fight a war nor the determination to fight a war. If South Korea does not have U.S. military support and wants to go it alone with North Korea, it can be certain that there is almost no chance of winning. Not only do the current President Moon Jae-in is afraid of a war with North Korea, the former so-called hawkish President Lee Myung-bak, when encountered  the Yin Ping Island artillery incident, at most he did was to bluffing a few shouts, but dear not to have a real fight. After President Moon took office, he repeatedly emphasized that the DPRK nuclear issue should be solved peacefully, because, deep in his bones, he is afraid of North Korea. Now that North Korea has a nuclear weapon, he will only be more afraid.

The role of the United States, Japan and South Korea in dealing with North Korea can now be presented by a cartoon. The big brother of the United States wants to protect his younger brothers and beat up North Korea, but the younger brothers of South Korea and Japan not only do not help but to hold their big brother's leg firmly, preventing his from charging forward.

Since Japan and South Korea held such an attitude, how could the United States use force against North Korea?